Resources and Economic Growth

Table of Contents

In Essence

Joel Havernann,
Rochelle L. Stanfield, and Neal R. Peirce,Way Up North in National Journal (June 26, 1976). 1730 M St., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036.
Federal tax and spending policies are abetting a huge transfer of wealth from the Northeast and Midwest to the fast-growing southern and western "sunbelt" states, according to National Journal compu-tations. The people of the economically stagnating Northeast and Great Lakes states are paying out vastly more in federal taxes than they receive...

"A Party Jack Barbash, in Challenge (MayJune
Known as COPE" 1976), 901 N. Broadway, White Plains,
N.Y. 10603.
An American labor party could have emerged from the mass unionism of the 1930s but it did not happen-and it's not going to happen. Barbash, a University of Wisconsin economist, traces early American unionism from its anti-industrial and anti-capitalist origins to the New Deal era, when labor leaders like the coal miners' John L. Lewis turned their backs on class theory and embarked...

"A Party Jack Barbash, in Challenge (MayJune
Known as COPE" 1976), 901 N. Broadway, White Plains,
N.Y. 10603.
An American labor party could have emerged from the mass unionism of the 1930s but it did not happen-and it's not going to happen. Barbash, a University of Wisconsin economist, traces early American unionism from its anti-industrial and anti-capitalist origins to the New Deal era, when labor leaders like the coal miners' John L. Lewis turned their backs on class theory and embarked...

child-rearing-a constraint felt men as well as women. (Of women surveyed who had children at home, 5.3 percent had run for local public office, as against 26.1 percent with no children at home who had done so. For men it was 21.5 percent as against 38.9 percent.) Lee found women also shy away from seeking office because they see it as an inappro- priate form of political activity (as distinct from helping others win election), because they feel others (both men and women) would dis- approve, and...

Rob-Bad-mouthing the ert Samuelson. in The New Republic (May 15, 1976), 1220 19th St., hash-Bureaucracy ington, D.C.20036.
Samuelson, a Washington writer for the Financial Times of London, challenges the revived election-year notions that the federal bureau- cracy has grown enormously in the past decade; that federal workers are grossly overpaid; that the government could be more effective and less costly if it were reorganized. In fact, Samuelson notes, federal civilian employment has grown about...

Rob-Bad-mouthing the ert Samuelson. in The New Republic (May 15, 1976), 1220 19th St., hash-Bureaucracy ington, D.C.20036.
Samuelson, a Washington writer for the Financial Times of London, challenges the revived election-year notions that the federal bureau- cracy has grown enormously in the past decade; that federal workers are grossly overpaid; that the government could be more effective and less costly if it were reorganized. In fact, Samuelson notes, federal civilian employment has grown about...

Andrew J. Pierre, in Orbis (Win-With Terrorism ter 1976), 3508 Market St., Philadelphia,
Pa. 19104.
International terrorism is clearly on the rise and cannot be regarded as a passing phenomenon. During the two decades prior to 1969 an annual average of 5 aircraft hijackings occurred; in the early 1970s, writes Pierre, an American arms control and European security spe- cialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, more than 60 took place each year. The past six years have seen more than 500 major...

Harold S. Russell, in OfHelsinki American Journal of International Law
(Apr. 1976), 2223 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C.20008.
The Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) was inevitable, writes Russell, principal U.S. negotiator for the initial "Dec- laration on Principles" signed in Helsinki August 1, 1975. It was a necessary element in the "process of detente." Failure to conclude an agreement would have raised serious doubts about the viability...

inexpensive missile-carrying smallcraft; these threats may deprive the Big Navy of its traditional pervasiveness and purpose.
"The Yom Kippur War-In Retrospect"
Technological Lt. Col. J. Viksne, Royal Australian
S~prise.~ Signals Corps, in Army Journal (May
1976), Department of Defence, Canberra,
Australia.
Colonel Viskne's detailed analysis of the October 1973 Yom Kippur War argues once again that for every innovation in warfare there is ulti- mately a countermeasure. In the 1967...

Lester Turning Points Thurow, in Harvard Magazine (July-For America Aug. 1976), P.O. Box 301, Uxbridge, Mass.
01569.
MIT economist Thurow looks at what lies ahead for the economy in America's third century and finds some serious problems obscured current misconceptions. Contrary to popular belief, he contends, economic growth has not brought us more leisure time, but less: "American families are working more and more, with fewer and fewer hours at home." (Hours of paid work by women...

Lester Turning Points Thurow, in Harvard Magazine (July-For America Aug. 1976), P.O. Box 301, Uxbridge, Mass.
01569.
MIT economist Thurow looks at what lies ahead for the economy in America's third century and finds some serious problems obscured current misconceptions. Contrary to popular belief, he contends, economic growth has not brought us more leisure time, but less: "American families are working more and more, with fewer and fewer hours at home." (Hours of paid work by women...

Con- gress and the Securities and Exchange Commission in an "erratic and inequitable application of existing but inadequate statutes." Critics in the business community accuse the SEC of exceeding its 1933 Congres- sional mandate calling for disclosure of all "material" informat"ion about a publicly owned company-that is, only information of signifi- cance to an investor. The SEC seems to regard all "improper acts" as "material." Moreover, critics charge,...

new job opportunities, the costs to the town of providing services were greater than the net tax revenues generated, especially if new water and sewerage facilities were needed. The Worst error? Overestimating population growth and building fa- cilities for people who never arrived.
"Why Bosses Turn Bitchy" RosabethDistinctions, Moss Kanter, in Psychology Today (May Not Differences 1976),P.O. Box 2990, Boulder, Colo. 80302.
Why don't more women seek or find career success? Is it because...

new job opportunities, the costs to the town of providing services were greater than the net tax revenues generated, especially if new water and sewerage facilities were needed. The Worst error? Overestimating population growth and building fa- cilities for people who never arrived.
"Why Bosses Turn Bitchy" RosabethDistinctions, Moss Kanter, in Psychology Today (May Not Differences 1976),P.O. Box 2990, Boulder, Colo. 80302.
Why don't more women seek or find career success? Is it because...

PERIODICALS
ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS
and the educational institutions that supply it. She likewise opposes a shift to technical and vocational training (the National Planning Association says that of all jobs available, 80 percent involve essentially routine tasks requiring no particular skills).
A realistic solution, Berger argues, must take account of those who regard education as a tool for self-discovery. When bonded with the New Consciousness, celebrated in 1970 in Charles Reich's b...

2025, while higher mortality rates in
the poorer, hungier countries gradually cut average world life ex-
pectancy from 55 years in 1975 to 45 in 2025, world population will
stabilize for the following 50 years, while mortality slowly decreases
and life expectancy rises to 63. This last projection suggests a stable
world population of about 6 billion 2075 but, says Echols, the
price will be "terrible suffering for the less developed Southern
Hemisphere."
"Save Energy,...

Edmund Faltermayer, in Potential Fortune (Feb. 1976), Time & Life Build- ing, New York, N.Y. 10020.
Solar energy might seem to be the perfect solution to our energy prob- lems-it is "everlastingly abundant" and completely benign to the en- vironment. But sunpower has inherent limitations, Faltermayer says. It cannot be stored for long or transported far (unless converted to electricity). More serious is "the high cost of gathering the sun's free energy." Equipping a house...

West Germany and France to sell nuclear fuel facilities to Brazil and Pakistan may mark the collapse of American hopes for halting nuclear weapons proliferation. Why? The plants and technology required to en- rich uranium and reprocess plutonium for use as fuel in nuclear power plants can also produce material for atomic bombs.
Writing in Foreign Affairs, Senator Abraham A. Ribicoff urges the United States to persuade other nuclear exporters to control future uranium enrichment and plutonium reproc-...

'Learning About Crime-The JapaneseSocial Exclusion Exnerience" bv David H.Bavley, in The In Crime Control public ~nterest(Summer 1976), 10 E.
53rd St., New York, N.Y. 10022.
In affluent, urbanized Japan, the crime rate has declined to a 25-year low, and the downward trend continues. Comparable statistics indicate there are four times as many serious crimes per capita in the United States as there are crimes (of any sort) in Japan. Even drug-related crimes, once a serious Japanese problem,...

'Learning About Crime-The JapaneseSocial Exclusion Exnerience" bv David H.Bavley, in The In Crime Control public ~nterest(Summer 1976), 10 E.
53rd St., New York, N.Y. 10022.
In affluent, urbanized Japan, the crime rate has declined to a 25-year low, and the downward trend continues. Comparable statistics indicate there are four times as many serious crimes per capita in the United States as there are crimes (of any sort) in Japan. Even drug-related crimes, once a serious Japanese problem,...

Benigno E. Aguirre, in
Latin American Research Review (no. 1, 1976), 316 Hamilton Hall, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, N.C. 27514.
Between 1959 and 1972, the United States received almost half a million Cuban immigrants-almost all of them white. In this study, Aguirre, doctoral candidate in sociology at Ohio University, assays the political and social forces that have discouraged emigration of blacks, who comprise over a quarter of Cuba's population but in 1970 made up only 2.6 percent...

Everett Faculty Women: C. Ladd, Jr. and Seymour Martin Lipsit, A Political Profile in The Chronicle of Higher Education
(May 10, 1976), 1717 Massachusetts Ave.,
N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. Since 1970, there has been a steady increase in the proportion of women on American college faculties; now 37 percent of the teachers under 30 are female. Women teaching the social sciences tend to be more "radical"; but otherwise "men and women [teachers] differ little in their general social...

Everett Faculty Women: C. Ladd, Jr. and Seymour Martin Lipsit, A Political Profile in The Chronicle of Higher Education
(May 10, 1976), 1717 Massachusetts Ave.,
N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036. Since 1970, there has been a steady increase in the proportion of women on American college faculties; now 37 percent of the teachers under 30 are female. Women teaching the social sciences tend to be more "radical"; but otherwise "men and women [teachers] differ little in their general social...

permitting development in a more "mature" environment. The only child suffers from the lack of opportunity to teach younger siblings-a handicap affecting last-born children, too.
Thus, some of the decline in SAT scores may be attributed to a steady fall in the percentage of first children born between 1947 and 1962 (from 42 percent to 27 percent), resulting in fewer children taking the SAT who have the intellectual advantages of being firstborn. The proportion of first children has been...

Thomas E. Patterson and Rob- Elections ert D. McClure, in Psychology Today (July1976), P.O. Box 2990, Boulder, Colo. 80302.
Patterson and McClure puncture some fashionable assumptions about television's influence in American elections. The authors, both political scientists at Syracuse University, analyzed every televised political commercial and network weekday evening newscast during the 1972 Nixon-McGovern contest. They also interviewed more than 600 voters -at the start, midway, and end of...

Thomas E. Patterson and Rob- Elections ert D. McClure, in Psychology Today (July1976), P.O. Box 2990, Boulder, Colo. 80302.
Patterson and McClure puncture some fashionable assumptions about television's influence in American elections. The authors, both political scientists at Syracuse University, analyzed every televised political commercial and network weekday evening newscast during the 1972 Nixon-McGovern contest. They also interviewed more than 600 voters -at the start, midway, and end of...

Mary Ellen Leary,
IS Good News? in Columbia Journalism Review (July-Aug. 1976), 601 Journalism Bldg., Colum- bia University, New York, N.Y. 10027.
California television stations virtually ignored the 1974 gubernatorial contest between Democrat Edmund G. Brown, Jr. and his underdog Republican challenger, Houston Flournoy. Political reporter Leary dis- closes that six major television stations in four principal metropolitan areas of California devoted just 2 percent (6 out of 257 hours) of their...

Robert S. Erikson, in
Of Endorsements American Journal of Political Science
(May 1976), 5980 Cass Ave., Detroit, Mich. 48202.
Can the mass media, endorsing a particular candidate, persuade a significant number of voters to switch their votes? Florida State Uni- versity political scientist Erikson studies the 1964 presidential election and answers yes, in limited situations. In 1964, traditionally Republi- can newspapers endorsed Democratic nominee Lyndon Johnson, over his GOP rival, Senator Barry...

Ludendorff as part of a defensive doctrine for trench warfare. Crediting Hutier with all this was the work of Allied print media, beginning with the French, who, Alfoldi suggests, needed an enemy "genius" to explain a shocking setback and preferred one with a French name and Huguenot ancestors.

ARTS & LETTERS
A Good Theater "Toward an Architecture of the Theater as a Human Art" Martin Bloom, in Is Hard to Find the AIA Journal (June 1976), 1735 New York Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C...

George Rediscovering Woodcock, in The American Scholar
The Noble Savase (Summer 1976), 1811 Q st., N.w., Wash-
-
ington, D.C. 20009.
Although many scholars have studied vanishing primitive cultures, few
have asked why civilized man is so fascinated nowadays what Euro-
peans used to call "savage cultures." Woodcock, editor of Canadian
Literature, writes that Portuguese voyages to Africa and the discovery
of America first brought Europeans into contact with primitive peo-
ples....

George Rediscovering Woodcock, in The American Scholar
The Noble Savase (Summer 1976), 1811 Q st., N.w., Wash-
-
ington, D.C. 20009.
Although many scholars have studied vanishing primitive cultures, few
have asked why civilized man is so fascinated nowadays what Euro-
peans used to call "savage cultures." Woodcock, editor of Canadian
Literature, writes that Portuguese voyages to Africa and the discovery
of America first brought Europeans into contact with primitive peo-
ples....

the black man under the tutelage of an industrialized Simon Legree. It is an image to which many, North and South, re- sponded-and still do."

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
"Ocean Boundaries and Petroleum Re- Making Sensible sources" Hollis D. Hedberg, in Sci-Ocean Boundaries ence (Mar. 1976), 1515 Massachusetts
Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005.
Proposals to set international boundaries at 200 nautical miles from a nation's coast have the advantage of simplicity but little else t...

the coastal nation within the margins of a "boundary zone" extending oceanward from the approximate base of the slope for an internationally agreed distance (Hedberg recom- mends at least 100 kilometers-54 nautical miles). Such a boundary zone would bypass uncertainties in defining the precise location of the base of the slope and allow the final boundary to be drawn simple straight lines connecting fixed points of latitude and longitude. Hedberg suggests that the boundary concept be used...

Gene M.
Science and ", social
Lvons. in International science The Political System Journal (no. 1, 1976)-UNESCO, 7 Place de Fontenoy, Paris 75700.
The interplay between science and politics in the United States is an- alyzed in this essay Lyons, dean of the faculty at Dartmouth Col- lege. With the President and Congress asking scientists for advice about an increasingly technical world, the "imperatives of science" in- fluence politics. But politics influences science too-supposedly...

Eugene C. Kennedy, in America Human Emerience (Mar. 27, 1976), 106 W. 56th St.,
L
New York, N.Y. 10019.
Kennedy, a Catholic priest and psychologist, argues that the old au- thoritarian Catholic culture is dying and that today's priest must find the meaning of his ministry from within human experience. "A well-developed personal identity is indispensable to effective pastoral min- istry," Kennedy writes, yet many priests continue to think of them- selves "in the third person,"...

Eugene C. Kennedy, in America Human Emerience (Mar. 27, 1976), 106 W. 56th St.,
L
New York, N.Y. 10019.
Kennedy, a Catholic priest and psychologist, argues that the old au- thoritarian Catholic culture is dying and that today's priest must find the meaning of his ministry from within human experience. "A well-developed personal identity is indispensable to effective pastoral min- istry," Kennedy writes, yet many priests continue to think of them- selves "in the third person,"...

means of spontaneous abortion. To Haring, it seems "shocking" that rhythm, recently endorsed again the Church, should in application produce a vast number of zygotes (fertilized eggs not yet implanted in the wall of the womb) lacking the vitality for survival.
Interruption of the life process between fertilization and implanta- tion, he says, lacks the "gravity or malice" that attends abortion of an individualized embryo. But Haring concludes that the new medical evidence (already...

"Mao Tse-Tung's Leadership Style" byMao's Unity Lucian W. Pye, in Political Science Quay- terly (Summer 1976), Academy of Polit- Of Opposites ical Science, 2852 Broadway, New York,
N.Y. 10025.
"all standards, Mao Tse-tung belongs in the company of the few great political men of our century," writes Lucian Pye, a China scholar at MIT. In this psychological profile, Pye attributes Mao's greatness to "his extraordinary ability to understand, evoke, and direct human emotions....

Jessica Lea-
Chinese Oil trice Wolfe, in Asian Survey (June 1976), University of California Press, Berkeley, Calif. 94720.
China's fast-growing petroleum industry-315 million barrels produced in 1972, increasing 20-25 percent annually-has attracted attention in the West especially since the 1973-74 energy crisis. Most specialists look at China's oil exports potential. But it is more valuable to observe Maoist principles of economic development, argues Jessica Leatrice Wolfe, a graduate student...

Jessica Lea-
Chinese Oil trice Wolfe, in Asian Survey (June 1976), University of California Press, Berkeley, Calif. 94720.
China's fast-growing petroleum industry-315 million barrels produced in 1972, increasing 20-25 percent annually-has attracted attention in the West especially since the 1973-74 energy crisis. Most specialists look at China's oil exports potential. But it is more valuable to observe Maoist principles of economic development, argues Jessica Leatrice Wolfe, a graduate student...

1962, Nkrumah had gone on the political defensive. He re- versed his nationalist policies and deliberately fostered ethnic differ- ences in the military and elsewhere to divide his political foes. Grad- ually, tribalism revived. In the Army's 1966 anti-Nkrumah coup, the original plotters, all Ewes, added an Ashanti, a Ga, and a Fante only at the last moment. Nkrumah's last ditch supporters were almost all northerners, whom he had favored with top army and police posts, or members of Nkrumah's own...

Had-Rethinking the ley Arkes, in Commentary (May 1976), 'Inevitable" 165 E. 56th st., New York, N.Y. 10022.
Opening the governments of Italy and France to indigenous Communist participation would seem to be an idea "whose time has come." Yet what is the commitment of those parties to the principles of parlia- mentary democracy? Arkes, a professor of political science at Amherst, says the evidence indicates that their commitment is "rooted in noth- ing more substantial than a...

Book Reviews

Essays

People in the United States, as James Reston once pointed out, will do almost anything for Latin America except read about it. Unless there is a coup in Chile, or Seiiora Peron flees Buenos Aires, it seems the Norteamericanos are not interested. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger's two trips to Latin America this year got little attention, although he was visiting an area of growing concern to U.S. business and diplomacy. One of the countries he visited was Brazil, the biggest, most powerful na- tion to the South, and no longer a "client" of Washington on the world scene.

Robert A. Packenham

Brazil's 300-year experience with race and slavery is very different from that of the United States.

Leslie B. Rout

The nation's bicentenary has spurred a number of leading scholars to take another look at the American Revolution. Some have uncovered new data on social and economic life in colonial America. Others have sought anew to explain the Revolution's causes and effects, its leaders' strengths and weaknesses. Here, Sociologist Robert Nisbet discusses the Revolution's social impact.

Robert Nisbet

the specialists vary widely. There are optimists like Geologist James Boyd who see technological solutions; pessimists like Systems Analyst Dennis Meadows, co-author of The Limits to Growth; and those in between like Nuclear Physicist Alvin Weinberg. In a lively "evening dialogue" earlier this year at the Wilson Center, these three men and their audience examined major issues that crop up in discussions of resources and the future. We present an abbreviated transcript of their debate,...

Donella H. Meadows, Den- nis L. Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Wil- liam W. Behrens I11 (Universe Books, with Potomac Associates), has report-edly sold more than 2 million copies worldwide (375,000 in US. cloth and paper editions). LIMITS helped to spawn dozens of new books on growth (pro, con, exponential, sustainable, zero) and has been responsible for a renewal of interest in early Doomsday writers.
These include, most notably, T. R. Malthus, the British parson-economist whose pessimistic study,...

Robert A. Packenham
Since 1964, when the military took power for the first time in the twentieth century, two impressions of Brazil have been growing in the United States.
Businessmen and State Department officials, in particular, have seen in Brazil a growing industrial juggernaut, an emerg- ing regional power, a new force in Third World politics, and the strongest pillar of stability and anti-Communism in Latin America.
On the other hand, liberal politicians, journalists, intellec- tuals, and...

Thomas E. Skidmore on the historiog- raphy of Brazil, U.S. readers still do not have much general knowledge of the world's fifth largest nation.
A good reading list starts with broad histories and cultural surveys, followed books on politics, race, regions, the military, and selections from Brazil's own vivid literature.
But, first, back to coffee. Its impor- tance in Brazilian history, shaping both rural society and economic growth, cannot be overstated. No work in Eng- lish matches Affonso de...

Robert Nisbet
Was there in fact an American Revolution at the end of the
eighteenth century? this, I mean a revolution involving
sudden, decisive, and irreversible changes in social institutions,
groups, and traditions, in addition to the war of liberation from
England that we are more likely to celebrate.
Clearly, this is a question that generates much contro-
versy. There are scholars whose answer to the question is
strongly negative. Indeed, ever since Edmund Burke's time
there...

John Adams and Thomas Jefferson first met in June 1775 at the Second Continental Congress in Philadelphia. The war had begun. Incipient revolutionary governments were in being in both Massachusetts and Virginia. But whether American in- dependence would be declared or won, whether the continent would be united, and what the ultimate course of this revolu- tion would be no one could tell. Adams and Jefferson, finding that they thought alike on the great questions before Congress, quickly became...

Merrill D. Peterson

Russel B. Nye, Univ. of Chi- cago, 1966, cloth & paper) or the latest, two-volume exercise, A NEW AGE NOW BEGINS: A People's History of the American Revolution Page Smith (McGraw-Hill, 1976).
These sweeping narratives are surpris- ingly alike in some ways. But where Bancroft, the founding father of Amer- ican history, writes stirringly of battles in "drum and bugle" style, Smith, equal- ly fascinated by war, is down-to-earth modern. Example: "The most pressing issue before the...

When Editor Russell Lynes published his light-hearted analysis in the February 1949 Harper's, Harry S. Truman had just been elected President in his own right, Gerald Ford was a freshman in Congress, and the median U.S. family income was $3,107. At the top of the best-seller list were Lloyd Douglas's religious novel, The Big Fisherman, and Dwight D. Eisenhower's Crusade in Europe. Television was still a novelty.
Tongue in cheek, Lynes sought to gauge the social significance of "taste"...

Russell Lynes

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