Since the murderous dictator Mengistu Haile Mariam took flight in 1991, ending 17 years of communist rule, Ethiopia has gone democratic, at least in appearance. It now boasts a written constitution, a threebranch federal system based on nine (ethnic) states, an elected national parliament, political parties, and an independent press. Does reality match the appearance? Paul B. Henze, a Washington-based RAND Corporation consultant, maintains in the Journal of Democracy (Oct. 1998) that it does. Two other scholars, invited to comment by the journal’s editors, accuse him of a whitewash. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, born nearly four years ago, "now operates within a constitutional and legal framework that possesses all the universally recognized characteristics of a democratic system," says Henze, who has written several books about Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region. True, the political process is dominated by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Front (EPDRF), rooted in the northern province of Tigre, whose military forces overthrew Mengistu’s regime. But opposition leaders have simply declined to participate in the political process, both during the transition to the new republic and since, Henze says. When elections were held for the new 525member parliament in 1995, most opposition parties refused to put up candidates. In 1993, many opposition politicians strongly objected to holding the referendum in the province of Eritrea that resulted in its independence, after three decades of civil war. Efforts by foreign embassies, pro-democracy organizations, and others to encourage opposition leaders to join the political process have only strengthened their "pervasive rejectionism," Henze says. Unfortunately, Ethiopians’ historical experience "has not taught [them] to grasp the concept of constructive criticism."

International human rights organizations have condemned the EPDRF for various alleged abuses, including the detention of thousands of militants, some of them allegedly tortured, and the arrests of dissenting journalists. But Henze argues that injustices are "inevitable" in Ethiopia’s circumstances. "What is noteworthy is that the country’s leaders have resorted so seldom and so briefly to repressive actions and that they have consistently maintained their commitment to creating a more open, tolerant, humane, and prosperous society."

The critics have focused, for the most part, on conflicts involving intellectuals in the capital city, Addis Ababa, Henze says. The issues are of little importance to most of Ethiopia’s 59 million people, 85 percent of whom are peasants. Moreover, the interest of the vast majority in opposition activity has waned, he says, "as the pace of recovery, reform, educational expansion, and economic development has accelerated." Ethiopia’s gross domestic product grew at an average rate of 6.9 percent between 1992 and 1997, when production of coffee, its chief export, reached an all-time high. "Most elements of the opposition continue to avoid participation in elections in order to avoid exposing their lack of support among the electorate," Henze believes. Richard Joseph, a political scientist at Emory University, Atlanta, charges that Henze has distorted the idea of democracy to justify "what are at best semi-authoritarian practices." Joseph cites a 1998 review by Human Rights Watch which charged that by sponsoring 16 ethnic political parties, the regime purposely split the opposition and "ensured a quasi-monopoly of power." The review also said that the boycotted elections were indeed unfairly conducted.

Eager to get financial aid from Western countries and international organizations, all African regimes today "claim either to be democratic, or in transition to democracy," Joseph observes, "just as, 20 years ago they all claimed to be pursuing ‘development,’ ‘nation-building,’ and ‘political integration.’ "

John W. Harbeson, a political scientist at City University of New York, agrees. While the EPDRF represents a big improvement over Mengistu’s regime, its constitutional structure is merely a façade covering "an essentially bureaucratic-authoritarian regime dependent upon the EPDRF’s superior military muscle," he says.

"The EPDRF’s leadership, whose core Tigrean constituency represents perhaps 10 percent of the population, has used its military supremacy to secure political hegemony," without much regard for rebuilding the political system on a democratic foundation, according to Harbeson. No doubt the opposition parties deserve some of the blame, he concludes, but the larger responsibility for the absence of true democracy in Ethiopia today lies with the ruling party.