Special Issue

Table of Contents

In Essence

Charles A. Murray, in The Public Interest (Fall 1982), P.O. Box 542, Old Chelsea, New York. N.Y. 10014.
Lyndon Johnson's "War on Poverty," launched in 1964, spurred a sharp 16-year rise in social spending. Yet Murray, former chief scientist of the American Institutes for Research, argues that Washington's new ac- tivism had a perverse result: It brought the gradual spread of American affluence to a "grinding halt."
Thanks chiefly to economic growth, the number of people living...

women are on welfare.]
one measure, LBJ's War on Poverty was a success. If poverty is calculated counting income, transfer payments, and in-kind benefits (food programs, medical care, housing), the rates were 10.1 percent in 1968,6.2 percent in 1972, and 6.1 percent in 1980. But, says Murray, the goal of the War on Poverty was to help people escape "the dole."
In retrospect, he concludes, economic growth proved to be the only real antidote to poverty. "If the War on Poverty is construed...

Walter Reagan's New Guzzardi, Jr., in Fortune (June 28, 1982),Federalism 541 North Fairbanks Ct., Chicago, 111.
6061 1.
President Reagan's proposal to turn over major federal programs to the states has been attacked as an attempt to institutionalize "benign ne- glect" of the nation's poor. Guzzardi, a Fortune editor, offers two cheers for Reagan's New Federalism, though he doubts that the states should be given all the responsibility the President intends to assign them.
Today's statehouses...

?" by
I. A. Lewis and William Schneider, in Public Opinion (April-May 1982), % American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 1150 17th St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036.
Public opinion pollsters called the 1980 presidential election a "horse race" right up to election day. Yet a "closet Reagan vote" gave the Republican a comfortable 10 percent margin of victory. The public, it appears, concealed its intentions.
Pollsters have been aware of the problem for years,...

PERIODICALS
POLITICS & GOVERNMENT
inaccurate answers are simply due to memory lapses.
Moreover, attitudes expressed in polls are not always a reliable indi-
cator of behavior. During the early 1930s, researcher Richard LaPiere
crossed the United States with a Chinese couple to measure discrimina-
tion. Only one of the 251 restaurants and other public facilities they
visited refused them service. Yet when LaPiere later mailed question-
naires to the proprietors, 90 percent stated they...

the pipeline, says Stern, is to Western unity; the episode is a "classic example of how not to manage an alliance."
"The Marine Corps Faces the Future" by
Gung Ho,Again Michael Wright, in The New York Times Magazine (JU& 20, 1982), 229 West 43rd St., New York, N.Y. 10036.
Its ordeal during the Vietnam era "nearly left the Marine Corps a burnt-out case," writes Wright, a New York Times editor. Now the Corps' fortunes have improved.
In 1965-73, the Marines lost...

former "leathernecks" in Con- gress. Today, the Corps is the only military service to enjoy a legislated mini- mum force structure.
are on their way to the troops.
With a revived mission and better weaponry to back up its tradi- tional esprit, Wright concludes, the Marine Corps now again seems likely to survive as the nation's proud "all-American anachronism" among the services.
"A House Divided" Adam Zagorin, in
Lebanon's'u'u" �£,�£ig�£~o~i~~�£�£~9~~.0.~Farmingdale,N.Y....

Arab na- tions in 1979, less than 20 percent has been dispensed. The public debt has climbed to over $1 billion, more than an entire year's budget.
Meanwhile, the black market economy is booming, spurred civil war factionalism. About one-quarter of Lebanon's 400,000 workers are employed in the "underground" economy. The hashish trade reaps some $1 billion annually. Other smuggling reduced government customs duties collections by 40 percent during the first half of 1981. Lebanon's rival...

cash reserves. Audits are not required, and no governmental authority stands ready to make good on de- positors' claims if a Eurobank fails.
At present, outstanding loans far outweigh the Eurobanks' reserves, Zevin writes. Although loans to multinationals have been repaid out of profits, some $500 billion in loans to developing countries remain unpaid-and largely unpayable. Interest on these loans totals $60 bil- lion annually. Eurobanks handle the problem "rolling over" the debt-making...

only 54 percent. In 1975, payments took 21 percent of monthly income; 1980,30 percent. Fewer families could muster the financial resources required to qualify for a mortgage.
Because today's large pool of young adults still needs housing, Browne believes the market will recover as soon as interest rates de- cline. But the boom of the 1970s, she says, is over for good.
Trustbusters "Reagan's Antitrust Line-Common
Sense or an Invitation to Corporate Change Course Abuse?" by Michael Wines,...

PERIODICALS

ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS
petitive practices. In fact, says National Journal correspondent Wines, the policy changes may be more psychological than legal.
The government's two chief antitrust watchdogs, the Justice De- partment's Antitrust Division and the Federal Trade commission (FTC), have cut back their prosecutions for vertical concentration (when a manufacturer owns the companies that supply components of its products), as well as for "predatory" price-cutting and c...

PERIODICALS

ECONOMICS, LABOR & BUSINESS
seizures of neutral American ships. According to Frankel, a Berkeley economist, British imports from America dropped 73 percent the fol- lowing year; exports fell 56 percent. Some trade continued because the Embargo Act was at first loosely enforced and because some ships had already embarked on their long Atlantic crossing when the Act was passed. Smugglers also accounted for some trading.
But not much, says Frankel. Cotton was the chief U.S. expor...

1980, 32 percent more blacks worked in the craft trades-carpentry, plumbing, printing-while 15 percent fewer worked as laborers. The black-white income ratio in blue-collar fields was 81 percent in 1980, compared to 78 percent in 1973. Meanwhile, the number of black household workers dropped 42 percent, and black farm employment fell by 32 percent.
The earnings of black and white women were more nearly equal than those of black and white men. The earnings ratio of black to white women was 92.2...

God, was man's own creation-formed and sustained, and thus altera- ble, human beings acting autonomously," says Wood. Meanwhile, Enlightenment science fostered the belief that causes and effects in human affairs could be discovered, as they were in Newtonian physics. Faced with King George Ill's declarations of good will and such shock- ingly hostile developments as the 1765 Stamp Act, colonial leaders assumed that British officials were conspiring against them.
Ironically, Woods observes,...

one estimate, a mandatory five-year sentence for felonies would reduce such crimes only four percent.
dramatically reduced rearrests of youthful offenders-most of whom come from broken homes-by placing them in closely supervised group homes and providing jobs and education. The federal Child and Family Resources program produced similar results during the 1970s by pro- viding counseling, tutoring, and meals for children at a cost of only $3,000 per family.
The way to make America's streets safe,...

1980, collections were up to $600 million, five percent of benefits. Success varies from state to state. In New York, administrative costs exceeded collections in 1980, while Michigan rounded up $3 for every $1 spent. Nationwide, the program recouped $1.34 for each $1 of expenses.
One-third of all AFDC families with an absent parent should now be receiving child support, but only one in seven of those families does so. If collections could be improved and new awards won from other miss- ing parents,...

Jeff Greenfield, in Channels of
Strike Out Communications (~une-~uly
1982), P.O.
Box 2001, Mahopac, N.Y. 10541.
The election of telegenic former actor Ronald Reagan in 1980 seemed to
" "
many observers to confirm the power of television in politics. Actually,
says Greenfield, a commentator for CBS News, the 1980 election proved
the opposite.
All of Ted Kennedy's charisma could not overcome his failure to
provide voters with an appealing political program. The "irresistible"...

Jeff Greenfield, in Channels of
Strike Out Communications (~une-~uly
1982), P.O.
Box 2001, Mahopac, N.Y. 10541.
The election of telegenic former actor Ronald Reagan in 1980 seemed to
" "
many observers to confirm the power of television in politics. Actually,
says Greenfield, a commentator for CBS News, the 1980 election proved
the opposite.
All of Ted Kennedy's charisma could not overcome his failure to
provide voters with an appealing political program. The "irresistible"...

contrast, traditional non-Western ideas of human rights have centered on "the small community based on groupings of extended families," where a network of social support serves the same protective function as institutionalized Western human rights.
When Western philosophers began discussing human rights in the 17th century, the modern state was just taking shape. According to Donnelly, needs for human rights in the Third World today are "essen- tially the same . . . as they were...

most other philosophers, he did force them to confront contemporary social questions they would have preferred to ignore. And many of his student followers in the '60s are now taking their places in the ranks of today's teachers of philosophy.

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
"Micromemories" John Douglas, in Science 82 (July-Aug. 1982), P.O. Box
. -
10790, Des Moines, Iowa 50340,
The computer wizards who put a calculator in every pocket are now at work on Phase I1 of the "microelectronic revol...

burning tiny pits into them. Recently released Toshiba, the first commercial optical disks can store the equivalent of 33 books of 300 pages each; but they offer a "sluggardly" retrieval time of half a second. Optical disks have one other serious drawback: They cannot be amended or rerecorded.
The most promising micromemory technology, as Douglas sees it, involves making silicon chips "superconducting"~cuttingtheir resist- ance to the passage of electricity by bathing them in...

2015-would put the total population at 4.90 billion in 2000, an increase of only 2.1 percent, and a modest price to pay for a much healthier population.
At this point in the demographic transition, the biggest population changes are likely to come from drops in the fertility rate. The UN projections assume an annual decline of .07; a 50 percent greater de- cline would mean an 18.8 percent decrease in the projected population 2100. In fact, the most effective techniques for extending life expec-...

repeating the swing several times and gradually developing a return stroke that minimized drag, they could leap even further. Once natural selection refined their wings and increased their endurance, they left the ground behind.
"Science in the Old South: A Reap-Science and oraisal" bv Ronald L. Numbers and Janet in Journal of Southern His-
the Old South 5.~umb~rs, tory (May 1982), % Bennet H. Wall, Dept. of History, University of Georgia, Athens, Ga. 30602.
"1850 the cotton kingdom...

many miles from fellow workers in their chosen fields." In the words of 19th-century geologist William Barton Rogers, "Solitude is, after all, no friend to Science."

RESOURCES & ENVIRONMENT
The Last hk "Zoos: Endangered Species' Last Hope?" Joseph Wallace, in Museum (May-June 1982), Museum Circulation Services, P.O. Box 1300, Bergenfield, N.J. 07621.
Nowadays, zoos must be more than just showcases for exotic animals. As one zoo administrator puts it, "Zoos must...

the end of this century an estimated one million species of plants and animals will face extinction. The expense of main- taining even one animal in captivity is high, and often an entire herd is needed to ensure successful breeding. Better communication among zoos has helped spread the responsibility. But zoo experts now face the weighty task of choosing which of the earth's dwindling species will be saved and which will disappear.
"On or Off? Oil and Gas Survey" Roy Europe's Oil Eales,...

Bernard L. Cohen, in Cato Jo~(rna/(Spring 1982), Publications Dept., 224 Second St. S.E., Washington, D.C. 20003.
Since the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979, Americans have been more worried than ever about the safety of nuclear power plants. Co- hen, a physicist at the University of Pittsburgh, belittles many of the alleged risks.
Radiation occurs naturally-in outer space, on earth (e.g., in uranium), and in the human body (in the form of potassium). Human exposure to it varies widely. In...

Leo~do P. G. Aaron and Robert G. Clouse, in
Journal of Interdisciplinary History
(Summer 19821, MIT (Journals),28 Carle-
ton St., Cambridge, Mass. 02142.
Sigmund Freud looked at the writings and paintings of Leonardo da Vinci (1452-1519) and found evidence of a neurotic obsessional per- sonality-a man whose repressed love for his mother prevented normal heterosexual development. Aaron, an educational psychologist, and Clouse, a historian, both at Indiana State University, see instead the effects...

"Art Versus Collectibles" Edward C. Banfield, in Harper's (August 1982), P.O. Box 2620, Boulder, Colo. 80321.
When former Vice-president Nelson Rockefeller began selling high- quality reproductions of his private art collection, the art world was shocked. Hilton Kramer, former art critic of the New York Times, lamented "a new era of hype and shamelessness." Banfield, a Harvard government professor, argues that Rockefeller had the right idea.
The same connoisseur who buys recorded...

his assistants and then printed others. Sculptors today routinely make models in clay, wax, or plastic to be cast at foundries, often in sizes different from the original.
Two groups are responsible for the resistance to creating and show- ing high-quality reproductions, says Banfield. Art historians teach the public to value art "relics" as part of history, rather than as "something to be responded to aesthetically." And private art collectors make pur- chases for the same...

Valerie F. Brooks, in ARTnews (Summer 1982), 122 East 42nd St., New York. N.Y. 10168.
Public art museums may be strapped for cash today, but corporate art buying is on the rise. Chase Manhattan Bank's collection, begun in 1959, is worth $7.5 million, and its art purchaser is looking for more- which is good news for contemporary artists, writes Brooks, assistant managing editor of The ARTnewsletter.
Since the mid-1970s, corporate buyers have been aggressively seek- ing art they can display where...

Gaston A. for Mr.-TO Fernandez, in Journal of InterAmerican Studies and World Affairs (May 1982), Sage Publications, 275 South ~everl~
Dr., Beverly Hills, Calif. 90212.
On March 20, 1980, a handful of Cubans sought asylum at the Peruvian embassy in Havana. Before the dust had settled, 125,266 Cubans had immigrated to the United States. Much has been made of their impact on this country. What does it mean for Cuba?
Fernandez, a political scientist at St. Olaf College, interviewed a sampling of...

poor economic conditions. Unable to find jobs or housing, they must put off marriage and starting families. Others feeling the pinch include un- skilled workers, thanks in part to Havana's planned shrinkage of the construction industry. Only rural Cubans-beneficiaries of land re-forms and tax breaks-seem to remain loyal to their leader.
It is premature to declare "a crisis of socialism in Cuba," says Fer- nandez. But the Freedom Flotilla carried storm warnings for Castro.
"The Armed...

the overthrow of the Fascist autocracy.
Czechoslovakia: "Husak's Czechoslovakia and Economic
Stagnation," Vladimir V. Kusin, in
Problems of Communism (May-June,
1982), Superintendent of Documents.
U.S. ~overnment Printing Office, Wash- ington, D.C. 20404.
The economic outlook for Czechs during the 1980s is bleak, says Kusin, a senior research analyst for Radio Free Europe. Already, even by op- timistic official accounts, per capita income growth is at a standstill.
Why? The trouble...

Book Reviews

By Giuseppe di Lampedusa.
Pantheon, 1982.
320 pp. $5.95

Essays

Lawrence W.Lichty
So far, 1982 has been a good year for news, much of it bad news, but highly "visual" news-anguished faces last spring of the relatives of victims of El Salvador's civil war, clouds of grey-black smoke billowing over the high-rises of West Beirut during the Israelis' summer-long attacks, Iraqi tanks clanking into action against the Ayatolla Khomeini's invading revolu- tionary youths, the demurely smiling face of the Princess of Wales with the newborn Prince William, Solidarity's...

If this pensive ylo~~izg News (1978)is
woman in Alfred Leslie's Seven A.M. an average American consumer of news, she does not favor "news as entertainment," or TV news over print, or newspapers that strain to cater only to her whims. Surveys indicate that she just wants the news
The ion Quarterly/Special Issue 1982
48
Probably no business in America, of late, has seemed so prone to upheaval as the multibillion-dollar "news business," with the prospective expansion of "electronic...

Lawrence W. Lichty

RAN ON

by Leo Boga~t
When World War I1 ended, eight daily newspapers in New York City reported the story, as did seven in Boston, four in Philadelphia, five in Chicago, four in San Francisco. Now, not quite four decades later, New York is down to three (the Times, Post, and Daily News), and Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago have only two newspapers apiece. The most recent major casualties are the Washington Star, Philadelphia Bulletin, and Cleveland Press. In Toledo, New Orleans, Des Moines...

Leo Bogart

The press, wrote A. J. Liebling, is "the weak slat under the bed of democracy." Journalists have always liked to think the contrary-that the press keeps the bed from collapsing. They thought so even more after Vietnam and Watergate: Journalism, its champions then argued, deserves the privileges and im- munities of a fourth branch of government, and its practitioners should enjoy the status, rewards, and invulnerability that go with being known as "professionals."
Unfortunately...

James Boylan

The First Amendment to the Constitution of the United
States consists of a single sentence:
"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."
When that sentence became law in 1791, the clause pertain- ing to the press rendered Congress powerless to enact any law...

A. E. Dick Howard

this light alone. They cannot govern society episodes, incidents, and eruptions."
Such lofty talk was long in coming to American journalism. In Ameri-can Journalism-A History: 1690-1960 (Macmillan, 3rd ed., 1962), the University of Missouri's Frank Luther Mott notes that the first con- tinuous U.S. newspaper was the Bos- ton News-Letter, founded in 1704 by Boston's postmaster, John Campbell. The weekly did not thrive: 15 years later, Campbell complained that he could not "vend 300 copies...

Not many words in the English language have suffered from Romantic puffery and what H. W. Fowler calls "slipshod exten- sion" to the degree that the word genius has. Prior to the 18th century it meant mostly a special talent or skill. But that mean- ing has for two centuries been buried in large measure by an- other which the word then took on: a person of greatness who achieves solely through the "genius" that is endowed in him by God or by nature.
Two influences brought...

Robert Nisbet

economic disarray, political chaos, and outbreaks of terrorism. But what continent the Turks belong to remains a matter of dispute. Straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey is the only Islamic nation in NATO and the only NATO member in the Islamic Conference. The Turks pray in Arabic, converse in Turk- ish, and write in Latin script. Ethnically, a typical Turk is an alloy of a dozen races, from Hittites to Celts to Mongols. In one of his alliterative slogans, Kemal Ataturk, founder of the Repub- lic,...

, sud- denly beset by economic disarray, political chaos, and outbreaks of terrorism. But what continent the Turks belong to remains a matter of dispute. Straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey is the only Islamic nation in NATO and the only NATO member in the Islamic Conference. The Turks pray in Arabic, converse in Turk- ish, and write in Latin script. Ethnically, a typical Turk is an alloy of a dozen races, from Hittites to Celts to Mongols. In one of his alliterative slogans, Kemal Ataturk, founder...

Paul B.Henze

for its 1974 occupation of the northern third of the island. Radio broadcasts from East- ern Europe, speaking in the name of the outlawed Turkish Communist Party, regularly assail Turkey's two-year-old mili- tary government. Around the world, Armenian nationalists, based outside Turkey and seeking to split off several eastern provinces for themselves, have taken the lives of 23 Turkish dip- lomats or members of their families since 1975.
In an interview published earlier this year, Turkey's Foreign...

George S. Harris

far the best available and, though not always flattering to its subject, has long been a best seller in Turkey.
According to legend, Kinross writes, the Turks were guided in their ancient wanderings a gray wolf. As Islam spread north and east from Arabia after the sixth century, the Turks, dominated by the Seljuk tribe, moved from Central Asia into the Middle East, eventually substi- tuting the teachings of the Koran for their own pagan shamanistic wor- ship of earth, air, fire, and water. In 1071,...

public agencies and private institutions

"The Reagan Experiment"
 
Urban Institute, 2100 M St. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20037. 600 pp. $29.95 cloth,
$12.95 paper.
Editors: John L. Palmer and Isabel V. Sawhill

President Reagan took office deter- mined to chart a "fundamentally dif- ferent [domestic] course" for the United States. But 28 specialists commissioned the Urban Institute say that budget cuts and policy changes during the first 18 months of Reagan's tenure...

Summaries of key reports given at recent Wilson Center meetings

"A Century of United States-Korean Relations"
Conference sponsored the Wilson Center's East Asia Program, June 17-19,
1982. Ronald A. Morse, moderator.
During the 100 years since its first formal contacts with the United States, Korea has constantly looked to Washington for protection from hos- tile foreign powers-and has often been disappointed. That one-sided re- lationship is beginning to change, say the 21 participants i...

Metropol means many things to a Russian. It is, literally, a
"mother of cities," a capital; it is also the name of a Moscow
hotel, noted for its modernistic facade, and of Moscow's exten-
sive and architecturally splendid subway. But to a number of
Soviet writers, Metropol, a special publication, represents a
brave, last-ditch effort to promote free expression. Vassily Ak-
syonov is one of those writers. Born in 1933, the son of a famous,
persecuted author, Evgeniya Ginsberg,...

Vassily P. Aksyonov

On January 19, 1966, the parlia- struggle for independence from Brit- mentary party of the Indian National ain, had so dominated national poli- Congress Party elected Indira Gan- tics that his party, anxious to ensure dhi Prime Minister of India. a smooth succession, chose as its
No one knew quite what to expect. next leader the least controversial The 48-year-old daughter of former figure in their midst, La1 Bahadur Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Shastri, whom Nehru had appointed Mrs. Gandhi...

Nayantara Sahgal

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