"Social Policy and Mortality Decline in East Asia and Latin America" by James W. McGuire, in World Development (No. 10, 2001), American Univ., 4400 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20016–8151.

Everybody knows that South Korea, Taiwan, and the other Asian "tigers" provide the model that other developing nations ought to follow, right? Only if you assume that rising incomes are the key to well-being, writes McGuire, a political scientist at Wesleyan University. Things change if you substitute other goals that make at least as much sense, such as improved life expectancy and infant mortality.

By those measures, two of Latin America’s best performers, Chile and Costa Rica, have done as well as South Korea and Taiwan. [See chart.] Between 1960 and 1995, for example, the two Latin nations reduced infant mortality by 91 and 86 percent, respectively, while South Korea cut the infant death rate by 93 percent and Taiwan by 80 percent. Interested in living a long life? By 1997, Chileans and Costa Ricans both enjoyed somewhat longer life expectancy than their Asian counterparts.

By a variety of measures, however, South Korea and Taiwan vastly outperformed Chile and Costa Rica. The two Asian countries’ export-led growth policies produced much higher incomes and greater income equality, along with lower rates of childbearing and more widespread education. The World Bank calls this the "shared growth" model. But the two Latin countries both have strong welfare-state traditions, dating to the 1920s in Chile and the 1940s in Costa Rica. Both made energetic efforts to extend health care and other services to the poor during the 1960s and ’70s. By contrast, the two Asian countries were both Japanese colonies before 1945, and improvements in public health—medical care, water and sanitation works—were imposed by the imperial overlords. As a result, public health wasn’t seen as part of the citizen’s package of rights after 1945, McGuire says.

There’s another crucial difference between the two pairs of countries. During much of the 20th century, both Latin countries had democratic governments (the most prominent exception being the Pinochet years in Chile, 1973–89) and strong labor unions. Democracy arrived in South Korea only in 1988, and in Taiwan only in 1996.

The Asian model may work for some countries, McGuire concludes, though following it is a bit like trying to play basketball like Michael Jordan. "The cases of Chile and Costa Rica show that strong performance at human development is possible even in countries that struggle with slow economic growth, a high degree of income inequality, and prevalent income poverty."