Population and Economic Growth

Table of Contents

In Essence

Charles McC. Mathias, Jr., in Annals (July 1986), 3937 Chestnut St., Philadelphia, Pa. 19104.
Congressional campaigns may well be America's newest growth industry. Even after adjusting for inflation, between 1974 and 1984 the average cost of running for a House or Senate seat more than doubled.
Indeed, two years ago, House and Senate candidates collectively spent more than $374 million, much of it on television advertising.
To Mathias, U.S. senator (R.-Md.) and chairman of the Senate Com- mittee...

strict ceilings on overall spending and on their own personal campaign contributions.
Public financing would free politicians from many fundraising chores, says Mathias. It would also "level the playing field."
"Federalism and Competing Values in the Rea-
to the States gan Administration" Timothy J. Codan, in Publius (Winter 1986), Temple Univ., Philadel-phia, Pa. 19122.
"My administration is committed-heart and soul-to the broad principles of American federalism,"...

Robert L. Dudley and Craig R. Ducat, in The Western Political Quarterly (June 1986), 258 Orson Spencer Hall, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah 84112.
During the past decade, a conservative reaction to Lyndon Johnson's Great Society has taken hold in political Washington. The judiciary has not been immune, contend Dudley and Ducat, political scientists at George Mason and Northern Illinois universities, respectively.
Under Chief Justice Warren Burger (1969-86), the U.S. Supreme Court produced...

Eliot A. Cohen, in The New Republic (Sept. 1, 1986), 1220 19th
St. N.W., washington, D.C. 20036.
Republican or Democrat, hawk or dove, nearly everyone in political Wash- ington agrees that the costly U.S. armed forces need an overhaul.
The botched 1980 rescue mission in Iran and lackluster military co- ordination during the 1984 U.S. invasion of Grenada, among other things, have "convinced many observers that something is profoundly wrong," writes Cohen, who teaches at the U.S. Naval...

Helen Suzrnan, in The New York Times Mag- azine (Aug. 3, 1986), 229 West 43rd St., New York. N.Y. 10036; "The Costs of Disinvest-ment" Gavin ReUy, in Foreign Policy (Surn-mer 1986), 11Dupont Circle N.W., Washington,
D.C. 20036.
Racial violence continues to plague South Africa, claiming the lives of more than 150 blacks each month. In 1985 alone, nearly 19,000 blacks were arrested for protests. At issue is apartheid, the system of racial segrega- tion enforced by President P. W. Botha's...

Pretoria and the black African--National Congress (ANC); to release black leader Nelson Mandela from prison; to remove the military from black townships; to legalize the ANC and the Pan African Congress (a black political organi- zation); and to ban detentions without trials.
Western supporters of sanctions, Suzman says, often forget that 20 percent of South Africa's white electorate has already voted against apart- heid. Nor do they realize that, if the Botha government falls, the next regime,...

IODICALS

FOREIGN POLICY & DEFENSE
the go-ahead on weapons systems before working out the mechanical bugs. American taxpayers, for example, spent $2 billion on the Army's flawed DIVAD anti-aircraft gun before it was cancelled. Once weapons projects are under way, the DOD's 233 key program managers must answer to "a Ã?Â¥variet of staff advocates," who insist on more competition in bidding, or on awarding more subcontracts to minority-owned businesses, etc. The result: N...

Lynn E. Browne, in New England
Economic Review (July-Aug. 1986), ~ederal
Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston, Mass. 02106.
One of the traditional yardsticks of economic strength is manufacturing.
Throughout most of this century, the United States boasted robust manufacturing industries (e.g., steel, motor vehicles). They consistently employed roughly 25 percent of the labor force-until 1969, when con- traction set in. 1985, the number of workers who actually produced something tangible had sunk to...

12 percent between 1960 and 1980 (versus only nine percent in the United States). Such growth tends to correlate closely with increases in gross national product per capita. Even within the United States, the poorer Southern states have smaller-than-average service sectors.
Furthermore, adds Browne, service firms do contribute to economic progress. They enable other businesses to cut costs "contracting out" for specialized work, and increase demand for manufactured products (e.g., communications...

Timothy J. Naftali and Peter O'Hagan, in SAISReview (Summer-Fall 1986), 1740 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington,
D.C. 20036.
Trade between bordering nations is hardly uncommon, but Canada's de- pendence on the United States does border on the extreme. In 1960, Canada sold 55.8 percent of its exports (ranging from wood products to machine parts) down south. Today that figure is 78.8 percent.
Yet while the 25 million Canadians benefit hugely from proximity to the U.S. market, many of them have...

Related Deaths in the Home" Arthur L.
Kellermann, M.D., M.P.H., and Donald T. Reay,
M.D., in The New England Journal of Medicine
(June 12, 1986), 10 Shattuck St., Boston, Mass.
02254.
There are 120 million privately owned firearms in the United States, and they are present in roughly half of all homes. A large percentage of these weapons are kept for the expressed purpose of self-defense.
How safe are gun owners? Kellerman, a physician at the University of Tennessee, and Reay, the chief...

ington, suggest that the owners themselves, and their relatives and friends, have reason to fear the weapons.
In predominantly urban (92 percent) and white (88.4 percent) King County (1980 pop. 1,270,000), which includes Seattle, the authors exam- ined the records of- the 743 gunshot deaths that occurred between 1978 and 1983. Most (53.6 percent) of the killings took place in the home where the gun was kept. Of these 398 fatalities, 333 were suicides (83.7 per- cent), 50 were homicides (12.6...

the year 2000. Fully 88 percent of veterans aged 65 and over are covered Medicare or a private health plan. But one-third of the 12 percent who are not covered require long- term care for chronic illnesses not unique to veterans.
The Reagan administration proposes that only senior veterans living on less than $15,000 a year get VA help with nonservice disabilities. Levinsky has another idea: Washington should simply extend Medicare benefits to any elderly veterans not otherwise covered.
? "The...

Jacqueline S. Wie, in ~obnalof Social History (summer 1986), Car-negie-MeUon Univ., Pittsburgh, Pa. 15213.
'Cleanliness is next to godliness," advised John Wesley, the 18th-century Methodist. Wesley notwithstanding, notes Wilkie, a sociologist at Central Michigan University, regular bathing was a rarity for the average Arneri- can as recently as a century ago.
During the early 19th century, indoor plumbing was next to nonexis- tent. Although a few hotels (Boston's Tremont House, New York...

Gerhard

 
Wettig, in Aussen Politik (No. 2, 1986), 7000

 
Stuttgart-Hohenheirn, Schloss, West Germany.

As the long history of U.S.-Soviet
talks on arms control makes clear, the

negotiation of curbs on weaponry is a tortuous business. So, too, is the work of journalists who report on the maneuverings of the superpowers.
Wettig, a historian at the Federal Institute for Eastern and Interna- tional Studies in Cologne, West Germany, takes Wes...

IODICALS

PRESS & TELEVISION
"adamancy" for the lack of arms control progress, while the Soviet Union,
playing on "the biases of Western media people," has escaped its fair share
of bad press for the stalemate.
. Wettig's case in point is the abortive Intermediate Nuclear Forces
(INF) negotiations-in Geneva between 1981 and 1983, notably the render-
ing of "key events" in the talks in Deadly Gambits, the 1984 book by
Time's Washington bureau chief, Strobe T...

the time the birds had made 26 flights, the enthusiasm had become ennui. The postponements of attempts to launch the Challenger before January 28 drew journalistic jibes. On the eve of NASA's disastrous decision to fire the Challenger into space despite very cold weather at Cape Kennedy, Dan Rather opened the "CBS Eve- ning News" with a remark about "yet another costly, red-faces-all-around space shuttle launch delay."
Although specialized magazines (e.g., Science, Aviation...

making the punish- ment for committing such misdeeds more serious. Last year, the Depart- ment of Justice prosecuted Samuel L. Morison, a Navy Department intelli- gence analyst, for selling secret satellite photos of a Soviet shipyard to the British magazine, Jane's Defence Weekly. Morison was convicted of violat- ing the Espionage.Act-of 1917-a rarely invoked law that had previously been used to prosecute people for aiding a foreign enemy, but not for leaking to the Western press.
Buoyed the Morison...

begging, they walked "two two, barefooted, dressed in wool, possessing nothing, but holding all in common after the example of the Apostles." The Roman Catholic Church despised them, says Lemer, both for their "ostentatious poverty" (which put highhing orders in a bad light) and their unre-strained lay preaching. Waldo tried to gain Rome's blessing, but instead was excommunicated around 1182. By 1184, Pope Lucius I11 had declared all Waldensians heretics.
Their religious radicalism...

Christianity.

grasped directly, in an experience Edwards called "grace." What was the key to this heightened state? The Scriptures and nature. Even as a child, Edwards doubted the tradi-
tional Protestant doctrine of "predestinationw-the notion that some souls are born to salvation, some to damnation. age 18, he was convinced that anyone who read the Bible and studied nature could receive God's glory-provided that he had achieved "grace." For Edwards, that moment was u...

IODICALS

SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
humid air occur. If the updrafts are powerful enough to soar into the cold troposphere, five to 11miles up, tall, anvil-headed cumulonimbus clouds form. As the tropospheric wind rises, temperatures fall, and the high- vaulted clouds become electrically charged-negative on top and positive on the bottom. In reaction,-the underlying sea or land surface takes on a negative charge. As the electrical attraction between ground and cloud grows (as high as 100 million v...

the Middle Preclassic period (1250 B.C. to ~~Q.B.c.),
trade had become sophisticated, with Mayan com- munities exchanging obsidian glassware and jade throughout Guatemala.
The Late Preclassic period (450 B.C. to A.D. 300) saw the emergence of religious and political conventions typical of Classic Maya civilization. In 1980, working near Cuello, Belize, Harnrnond discovered that Mayan vil-lagers had replaced their small courtyard with a large ceremonial site around 450 B.C. To commemorate that...

Edward Weston. Cutaway of a nautilus's home. Roughly 10 inches in diameter, such shells typically have 36 chambers.
depths. To stay above 800-foot depths where it would be crushed, the nautilus pumps water in and out of its shell chambers, like ballast in a submarine, to regulate its buoyancy. Feeding at night, the nautilus relies mainly on smell. Its primitive eyes are lensless, like a pinhole camera. At nine inches it can barely discern what a human can see at 165 yards.
Genetic studies of nautilus...

the National Science Foundation. The report warned that the genetic pool of existing crops
might become too shallow, leaving plants vulnerable to disease or environ- mental shock. Fanners were urged to shift away from crops that need large amounts of water and soil nutrients, or that cannot survive in a broad range of temperatures and soil conditions.
Several plants native to the United States offer alternatives. The buf- falo gourd, a relative of the squash and pumpkin family, is one. Indigenous...

releasing water very sparingly, the TVA dams had created a "eutrophication" problem: In still waters, micro-organisms absorb oxygen needed fish, which either die or move away. The Bonneville Power Administration will spend up to $30 million to fit screens on its 15dams to keep migrating salmon from getting hacked up by the blades of the 60-foot turbines.
Most U.S. dams were designed and built long before the 1970 National Environmental Policy Act, which requires an ecological "impact"...

IODICALS
ARTS & LETTERS
Born in Moscow in 1931, Semyonov started out writing for Ogonyok, a newsweekly. In 1963, after a string of modest successes with fiction, he became a sensation with the publication of Petrouka 38, a thriller that described Soviet police methods in detail.
Semyonov's -next eight novels featured his most popular character, Maxim Stirlitz. He is the Soviet James Bond: athletic (a tennis champion), sensitive, educated (he can discuss Pascal and Kant), and courageously...

Roger Copeland, in
Partisan Review (Vol. 3, 1986), Boston Univ.,
141 Bay State Rd., Boston, Mass. 02215.
Few art forms get more criticism than does classical ballet.
Seizing on its aristocratic air, its rigidity-from leap to en point spin, every move is prescribed-and the seeming lack of social "relevance" of such ballets as Tchaikovsky's Swan Lake and Prokofiev's Romeo and Juliet, proponents of free-flowing modem dance denounce ballet as an art for mere aesthetes. The critics, notes...

Nicholas
Eberstadt, in Caribbean Review (No. 2, 1986),
--Florida International Univ., Tamiami Trail, Mi-
ami, Fla. 33199.
Like him or not, Fidel Castro has made Cuba a more literate, healthier, and better-educated nation-or so many American journalists and government officials believe.
These folk do not include Eberstadt, a Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He argues that only fudging key statistics has Havana been able to pass itself off as a "socialist showcase."
In...

Nicholas
Eberstadt, in Caribbean Review (No. 2, 1986),
--Florida International Univ., Tamiami Trail, Mi-
ami, Fla. 33199.
Like him or not, Fidel Castro has made Cuba a more literate, healthier, and better-educated nation-or so many American journalists and government officials believe.
These folk do not include Eberstadt, a Visiting Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. He argues that only fudging key statistics has Havana been able to pass itself off as a "socialist showcase."
In...

in two decades that were free of fraud.
The elections brought to power Mario Vinicio Cerezo Arevalo, 43, the leader of the Christian Democratic Party. He is only the third civilian chief that Guatemala has had since socialist Jhcobo Arbenz GuzrnAn was over- thrown, with U.S:-help, in 1954. If Cerezo is to survive his five-year term, writes Perera, a teacher of writing at the University of California, Santa Cruz, he "will need qualities of political judgment and courage well beyond those...

Chalmers Johnson, in Asian Survey (May 1986), Univ. of California Press, ~erkeley, Calif. 94720.
For Nakasone Yasuhiro, Japan's prime minister since 1982, as for his predecessors, defense policy is a delicate matter. Too little military spend- ing sparks U.S. complaints that Japan is getting a "free ride" on defense. Too much triggers charges of "revived militarism" at home and reminds Japan's neighbors of their harsh wartime experiences.
Johnson, a political scientist at the...

public agencies and private institutions

"National Service: WhatWogld It Mean?"
Lexington Books, 125 Spring St., ~exingon, Mass. 02173. 307 pp. $16.
Authors: Richard Danzig and Peter Szanton.
"Compulsory national servicem-an idea that has come and gone many times in re- cent U.S. history-is seeing a revival.
A recent Gallup poll found 65 percent approval of a program in which young peo- ple would serve their country-either in the military or a public service agency- for at...

Book Reviews

Len Ackland
and Steven McGuire
Educational Foundation for
Nuclear Science &
Univ. of Chicago, 1986
382 pp. $29.95 cloth,
$12.95 paper

Essays

1920, auto registrations had jumped to eight million, one car for every 13 Americans.
WQ WINTER 1986
46
One hundred years ago, Germany's Carl Friedrich Benz patented an odd-looking three-wheeled vehicle powered a tiny gasoline engine. Most scholars agree that the Benz was the world's first automobile with a workable internal-combustion engine. Henry Ford's Model T came 22 years later. Starting before the First World War, the automobile would transform the United States, spawning a giant industry...

1907, when Edward Penfield painted this Manhattan scene, only 140,300 Ameri- cans had the inclination (and the money) to own a car. By 1920, auto registrations had jumped to eight million, one car for every 13 Americans.
WQ WINTER 1986
46
One hundred years ago, Germany's Carl Friedrich Benz patented an odd-looking three-wheeled vehicle powered by a tiny gasoline engine. Most scholars agree that the Benz was the world's first automobile with a workable internal-combustion engine. Henry Ford's...

1913, Scribner's Magazine was predicting that cars would bring "greater liberty, greater fruitfulness of time and effort, brighter glimpses of the wide and beautiful world," and "more health and happiness.. . . Thank God we live in the era of the motor car!"
More than any other people, Americans would embrace the automobile. Not just transportation, it became for many a status sym- bol, an alter ego, a key to personal autonomy. Cars crept into song ("Nothin' outrun my V-8...

rail but makes an acquaint- ance; he who runs road makes a friend-or sometimes an enemy; he at least gets intimate."
Despite his dark side (he dabbled in anti-Semitism), Ford, the visionary tin-kerer who was wont to pick up a hitch- hiker and give him a job, remains the most compelling automaker of them all. "It was useless to try to understand Henry Ford," wrote Charles E. ("Cast Iron Charlie") Sorensen in My Forty Years with Ford (Collier, 1962). "One had to sense...

. Here, Maurice Cranston reviews the man's hfe and work.
Among the philosophers of the modem world, John Locke has always been held in especially high regard in America. His influence on the Founding Fathers exceeded that of any other thinker. And the characteristically American attitude toward politics-indeed, toward life-can still be thought of as "Lockean," with its deep attachment to the rule of law, to equal rights to life, liberty, and property, to work and enterprise, to religious...

Maurice Cranston

American relief groups. The developing world's poverty and hunger aroused sporadic concern in the West, but were not widely linked to population growth. Indeed, until the 1930s,

population grew faster in the West than in the poorer countries.
WQ WINTER 1986
94
The world's population, increasing more than one million hu- man beings a week, reached a total of five billion in 1986. Since the time of Thomas Malthus (1766-1834), scholars and philoso- phers have worried that population growth, if u...

. Here, Harvard's Nick Eberstadt examines the diverse economic effects of the much-publicized "population explo- sion." His surprising conclusion: The size and growth rate of a poor country's population are seldom crucial to its material pros- pects. What matters most, he contends, is how well a society and its leaders cope with change.
The world's poorer nations are in the midst of an unprecedented "population revolution." The revolution is occurring not in the deliv- ery room,...

Nick Eberstadt

ot;The scourges of pestilence, famine, wars, and earthquakes have come to be regarded as a blessing to- overcrowded nations, since they serve to prune away the luxuriant growth of the human race." So wrote the Christian theologian Tertullian during the second century A.D., when the earth's population was only about 300 million-or six percent of what it is today (five billion).
Tertullian's observation, and the book in which it appears-Garrett Hardin's
Population, Evolution and Birth Control...

JORGE LUIS BORGES
Shortly after receiving the 1982 Nobel Prize for literature, Colom- bian novelist Gabriel Garcia Marquez remarked upon the mysterious failure of the Nobel committee to recognize the elder statesman of modem Latin American letters, Jorge Luis Borges: "I still don't un-derstand why they don't give it to him." It was not false modesty. Like other Latin American writers, Garcia Marquez owes much to the labyrinthine imagination of Borges, who died last summer. His luminous f...

Alastair Reid