Tom W. Smith, in Public Opinion Quarterly (Spring 1990), Univ. Of Polling of Chicago Press, 5801 S. Ellis, Chicago, 111. 60637.
The origins of American political opinion polls are generally traced to 1936, when Alf Landon faced Franklin Roosevelt in one of the most lopsided "contests" in American history. Three pollsters (George Gallup, Elmo Roper, and Archibald Crossley) rose to the not-very-difficult task of predicting the winner. In fact, says Smith, a University of Chicago polling...