"The Changing Climate for Nuclear Power in the United States" by Richard Meserve, in Bulletin (Winter 2002), American Academy of Arts & Sciences, 136 Irving St., Cambridge, Mass. 02138.

"The demise of the nuclear power indus-While the number of nuclear plants has try was widely expected only a few years ago" dropped from 111 to 103 since 1990, the writes Meserve, chair of the U.S. Nuclear amount of electricity these plants produce has Regulatory Commission. But things may be increased by nearly 40 percent. Although changing. that 750 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity represents just 20 percent of U.S. consumption (countries such as France and Lithuania, by comparison, get over 70 percent of their electricity from nuclear plants), Meserve says the U.S. nuclear industry "is by far the largest commercial nuclear power program in the world." About one-quarter of the world’s nuclear plants are in the United States.

Meserve thinks the United States may be ready to move away from its reliance on coal and natural gas for electricity in favor of nuclear power. One compelling factor is cost: The average production cost of electricity from nuclear plants was about 1.71 cents per kWh in 1999. That is less than the cost of electricity from either coal or natural gas, both finite fuel sources that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. Price deregulation of electricity, along with the fact that the high capital costs of many older plants have now been largely repaid, has helped make nuclear competitive. But the plants have also become much more efficient. One reason: Operating capacity grew from 60 percent to 90 percent during the 1990s. Since most plants need to be shut down for refueling every few years, says Meserve, this capacity figure "is only slightly less than the practical maximum." New plants might be even more efficient. Researchers are working on three basic designs, all smaller and employing different approaches. Some, for example, are cooled by helium rather than water.

The main cloud hanging over all this optimism is the continuing problem of nuclear waste. Right now, spent fuel is kept in giant casks at each plant site, cooled by air convection. Meserve pronounces this storage system safe, but plants are running out of waste storage space. The Department of Energy has selected Nevada’s Yucca Mountain as the nation’s repository for nuclear waste, a choice endorsed by President George Bush and supported by a recent resolution in the House of Representatives. And even though Nevada’s state officials declare that they intend "to litigate at every available opportunity" to block the project, there seems little chance they can succeed.

Concerns over waste and lingering public nervousness after Three Mile Island and Chernobyl still color the public image of the nuclear power industry. But ultimately, as older plants near the end of their useful lives, the United States will have to decide whether it wants to capitalize on the advantages of nuclear power.