the year 2020 and to 17.8 million 2040. By then, there will be more than a million Americans aged 100 or older.
Simple demographic projections show with stark clarity what may be in store for the United States. In 1985, for example, the budget for Medicare (federal health in- surance for the aged) was $72 billion. But Medicare outlays increase "substantially" with age, from $2,017 annually for those aged 65 to 74 to $3,215 for those aged 85 and above. By 2040, therefore, Medicare could...