"Russia" by Anders Åslund, in Foreign Policy (July–Aug. 2001), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036.

Mention Russia today, and an image of catastrophic decline may well come to mind. Shock therapy failed, the economy has collapsed, the infrastructure is crumbling, corruption is widespread, the population is shrinking. Russia, in this view, seems headed for Milton’s "reign of Chaos and old Night." Get a grip, urges Åslund, author of How Russia Became a Market Economy (1995). The country’s plight has been vastly exaggerated.

True, official data show that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 44 percent between 1989 and 1998. But that’s a statistical mirage. "Under communism," Åslund notes, "everybody padded output to reach targets in the planned economy, while nobody cared about the quality (or even the usefulness) of the items produced." The subsequent decline in production of shoddy or useless goods should be welcomed, he says. And the statistics miss the substantial output of the postcommunist underground economy.

A more accurate picture of Russia’s economic development to 1998 would show stagnation, says Åslund. The problem is not excessive "shock therapy," but "too little shock and too much corrupt state therapy in the form of subsidies to the country’s elite." And don’t blame the plague of bribery on privatization, he says. It "is overwhelmingly connected with law enforcement, tax collection, and state intervention." Despite all its problems, Åslund points out, Russia since 1998 has achieved continued economic growth: The GDP increased 5.4 percent in 1999, and 8.3 percent last year.

Another important and largely unrecognized achievement, says Åslund, is the "extraordinary improvement" that privatization and market pricing have made in Russia’s infrastructure. He cites an impressive expansion in the telecommunications industry, improvements in airports and airlines, increased road construction, and new ports that have been built around St. Petersburg. Russia is in the midst of a "building boom." Maintenance problems, however, persist "where state monopolies linger," he observes.

As for Russia’s population meltdown, Åslund says the shocking statistics are misleading. Yes, the country is "losing" more than 500,000 people a year—but population decline is "an issue across Europe." Yes, male life expectancy decreased from 64 years in 1989 to 57 years in 1994—but the 1989 figure was an aberration caused by former Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign. The 1994 figure fit long-term trends. "Nothing suggests that average healthcare standards in Russia have fallen," Åslund maintains. Indeed, the infant mortality rate fell by 17 percent between 1993 and 1998.

Slow as Russia’s reforms have been, Åslund says, they "have progressed far enough to keep the communists at bay."

Many Russians and foreigners think that democracy is Russia’s problem, and that "a strong leader" is needed. On the contrary, Åslund maintains, "the unlawful enrichment of the elite is the problem. . . . The widespread disregard for democracy and the repression of media are the greatest dangers.